Providence Cooperative Survival FAQ - Threat Analysis

            This FAQ archived and presented as a courtesy by

                       The Providence Cooperative

                     http://www.providenceco-op.com

=======================================================================

Survival FAQ - In the Beginning, the Threat Analysis

(c) 1996 by Richard A. De Castro

Non-commercial use permitted so long as the entire work, with
attribution, is used, and it's not used or associated in any way with
any group or groups with racist or criminal intent.

Welcome to misc.survivalism and this FAQ.  This FAQ is designed to help
people new to the concept of survivalism formulate some plans that will
lead them to gaining the experience, knowledge and materials they will
need to be safe and secure in their lives.  Other FAQ's will address
some of the philosophical issues involved, and specific fields of study
(food preservation, etc.) that might be of interest.  Whenever possible,
we will provide pointers to the FAQ's of other newsgroups - if we tried
to reinvent every wheel, we'd never get anywhere.

Others can tell you why you want to survive, and if it's a good or bad
idea.  I think that survival is better than any other alternative, and
so I will do everything in my power to maximize the chances of my family
and myself to survive.  I presume that you have some serious interest in
the subject, or you wouldn't be reading this.

This FAQ is specifically designed to help you develop your own specific
threat analysis.  This threat analysis will describe for you the things
that you are most concerned about happening to you.  Threats are
different to each person or group, and they change with time, the
environment and your level of preparedness.  For example, in the 1970's
I was particularly concerned with three main threats to my safety,
earthquakes (I live in southern California), global nuclear war and
economic collapse (remember the sort of inflation we had back then?).
Since then, my circumstances have changed so that I'm better prepared
for an economic disaster (although by no means completely ready, yet), I
personally feel that global nuclear war is not a high threat, (although
attack by a terrorist with a nuclear device is a concern), and I still
worry about earthquakes (still in So. Cal). Your threats and concerns
will be different than mine, and personal threat analysis will of course
be different.  You might live in areas that don't have too many
earthquakes, but are subject to hurricanes, or severe winter snows, or
something else.  You may be better prepared for the future than I am.
And, you may be willing or unwilling to take some of the steps that I am
willing or unwilling to take - personal defense, for example.


DISCLAIMER: Use at your own risk.  Disagree with me civilly, or don't
disagree with me at all - I enjoy a good discussion, but I don't get
paid enough to get upset.  Finally, much of what follows is based very
closely on a book by Bruce Clayton, Ph.D. called _Life_After_Doomsday.
The book is very good, excellent even, within it's limits - it was
written around 1980, where the nuclear threat was much more significant
than it is now, and the structure of the US military has changed so that
some of his maps and information about various military installations
has changed. Also, the threat then was from the Soviet Union, I doubt
that the Russian Republics are as much of a threat today. Clayton offers
explanations on why he makes certain choices, and they're excellent -
just change the assumptions to fit the current facts.  I tried to write
to both Clayton and his publisher, asking for permission to use his
material, both letters were returned undeliverable.  [Note:  I've
contacted Dr. Clayton and am discussing the possibility of encorporating
more of his book into this faq. - RDeC].

The first step:

This analysis will be a long-term process - It's best to write it down!
Get a notepad and a pencil or two, probably an eraser will be handy as
well.  This may take several weeks, altogether, for the preliminary
steps.  Once you have them, you'll be modifying your lists often.

Who are you planning for?  Are you single, married, with kids, expecting
kids, extended family, pets, friends, neighbors?  You first need to
define the universe of people you're worried about.  What sort of
problems does that universe present?  Does someone have chronic health
needs?  Is there an infant that requires diapers and formula? List the
people on a piece of paper, then list the special needs they have.

Next, on a separate sheet of paper, list all the things that concern
you. Don't worry about putting them in any order, and don't worry about
their relative likelihood - just write them all down.

Some things to think about:

Natural Disasters:

* Weather
* Floods
* Drought
* Winter Storms
* Hurricanes
* Tornadoes
* Heat
* Climate changes
* New diseases (new forms of diseases)
* Wildfire
* Avalanche
* Mud slides
* Earthquakes
* Volcanic activity
* Tidal Surges (Tidal Waves, Tsunamis) 

Man-made Disasters:

* Political Disasters
* Riot
* Foreign invasion of the US
* Martial law
* Totalitarian government
* Environmental Disasters
* Hazardous Materials spills
* Nuclear material or plant accidents
* Dam failures
* Water / Air pollution

Economic Disasters:

* Depression
* Inflation
* Loss of your job / income / home

War

* All out nuclear
* Limited nuclear
* Terrorist nuclear
* Chemical (see also Haz Mat)
* Biological (see new diseases)

Terrorist Attack

* Kidnapping
* Hijacking
* Attacks on the infrastructure (water, electricity)
* Hostage taking
* Sabotage (see nuclear accidents, Haz mat)
* see also WAR

Others:

* House damage or destroyed due to fire or accident
* Family subjected to crime
* Robbery
* Burglary
* Car jacking
* Kidnapping

Once you have all the possible threats written down (don't be worried if
you come up with new threats as you work on it, it's a dynamic process).
Write down what that threat will mean to you and your lifestyle - what
will you have or not have, what will you be able to do or not be able to
do, what will you need (even if you already have it).  Finally, rank
them in the order that YOU perceive them to be a threat.  For example,
if earthquakes are your most serious threat, put them as number 1.  You
may have things that you think are equally threatening - in that case,
rank them both at a number - this isn't supposed to be hard.

Do you see why having a notebook (or better yet, a computer) to do this
with is handy?  Don't get frustrated if you have a couple of false
starts, deciding part way through a list to completely start over.  This
is a good indication that your knowledge and awareness is expanding, and
the knowledge and experience that you gain will serve you well.  I've
been personally studying the entire survivalism field pretty
consistently for more than 20 years, and I still learn new things, and I
still add to my list of things to learn, skills to master and materials
to buy.

You should now have a prioritized list of the hazards that you think are
significant.  This allows you to devote your time, money and energy
resources to the most important things first.  With this list, you can
start deciding what sorts of preparation you need to do to meet the
threat.  For example, lets say that hurricanes are your most significant
concern (presumably you live in hurricane land).  Hurricanes can cause
power outages, block roads, flood or damage homes, cause temporary food
shortages, create a big mess, etc.  So, what do you need to survive?


What now?

All survival and survivalist preparation can be broken down into several
broad categories, knowledge, skills, experience, and materials.  So,
list the things that you need in each area for the threat - for
knowledge, you need to know how to prepare, the skills you need are in
preparation for hurricanes (boarding / taping windows, first aid, home
repairs), you get experience by practicing the skills, and the materials
you need are things like plywood, masking tape, water storage
containers, food that doesn't require refrigeration, etc.  Do this for
each threat area.

The kinds of skills and materials you need can be very widespread.
Depending on the threat you're planning for, you might want the ability
to recreate civilization as we know it.  This is almost certainly
impossible for one person, or even one family - there are too many
skills needed, and too many kinds of specialty equipment and materials,
for one person to be competent at them all.  This is why survival groups
or small communities are almost always preferable.  You don't always
need a veterinarian, for instance, but when you do need one, a plumber
won't do.

As you complete this list, you'll find that certain things are needed
for many different threats. First aid skills and materials are always
useful, you may find that they show up for every category.  Stored food
and water might be needed for many things as well, while having and
operating a chainsaw might only be needed for a few.

You now have a roadmap of the skills and materials, that you need to
become self-reliant.  The longer you pursue the field, the more
information that you'll decide you'll need.  For example, you might
decide that you need to be proficient in emergency first aid, food
preservation (drying, smoking, canning, pickling) , animal husbandry,
engine mechanic, construction (design and building), fire fighting,
sailing, fishing, computer programming, ham radios, weaving cloth,
sewing, tanning leathers, bee keeping, accounting, trading, cabinet
making, farming, dentistry, childbirth, small military unit tactics,
advanced emergency medical treatment, improvised explosives, hunting,
trapping, welding, metal working, power production and generation,
telephone systems, and almost anything else you can think of.

Where to get trained: In addition to the various courses that are from
time to time discussed on the internet, your local community probably
offers a wide variety of courses that will help you in your quest.

Check with your local community college, high school adult program,
community center, or other educational programs.  Just don't expect to
see a category called "Survivalist Training".  Your local fire
department probably offers training in CPR and first aid, and if you can
join, they'll offer you more and better training.  The local law
enforcement agency may offer training as well as your county's civil
defense / emergency preparedness office.

Where to get experience: The best way to learn some skills is to do it.
This can be difficult, since your plans may be based on skills you
simply can't even start learning, yet.  For example, learning to grow
food is not hard, but it does require some dirt and space.  You may want
to learn how to fix small engines, but can't take your car out of
service.  There are lots of other examples.

Generally, you can offer your services as a volunteer to any one of a
number of organizations.  For example, if you're not sure how to cook
for large groups of people, volunteer at a food bank, meals-on-wheels,
or church group, and learn!  If you want to learn how to build houses
(and fix them, and how to use tools), organizations like Habitat for
Humanity are available, just looking for helpers.  You'll learn some
skills, but more importantly, meet people who can show you more tips and
tricks.  Organizations like the American Red Cross usually need disaster
workers, first aid instructors, etc., and they'll train you.

Also, it may not be practical to study your specific area of interest,
but can learn something that's closely related.  If you don't have a
field to farm, how about a back yard you can start growing a few
vegetables in?  If you're an apartment dweller, and don't have a yard at
all, you can grow some vegetables, or even just flowers, in window
boxes. You probably can't provide all your food needs from a window box
(unless it's a huge window), but you can start finding out what it's
like, what works, and what doesn't.

Commercial Schools.

In general, survivalist and survival oriented commercial schools are an
iffy proposition.  There's no standards for the course content, and some
instructors seem to think (and worse, teach) that they're way is the
only one true way to do something. Schools like this are dangerous, and
should be avoided.  Survival, and Survivalism, is the art of the
possible - there are lots of ways to build a shelter, depending on what
you have available, the time available, and the weather you need to be
sheltered from, no one style is ideal.  No one idea is right in the
entire spectrum of knowledge and learning, and it's up to the student to
be aware of the different styles and schools of thought. Some schools
are also quite expensive, and the worth is left to the student to
determine.

Areas that schools can be a great benefit in include shooting and
firearms.  The more famous schools, like Thunder Ranch in Texas, and
Gunsite in Arizona, have taught thousands of people how to be the most
proficient with firearms they can be.  They offer a graduated series of
classes to take a student from little or no experience to being
phenomenally quick and accurate with all sorts of firearms, but these
schools are not quick or cheap.
 
Materials.

It's almost impossible to completely develop a list of everything that
you might need to survive.  Even the US Military, which has a great deal
of experience in people living in strange places under less than ideal
circumstances, finds that they neglect something or other, and things
they thought were important weren't.  It's possible to have a pretty
good idea of what you need, though, with a little diligence and effort.

Keep track of everything you buy for a year, including food, toiletries,
cleaning supplies, clothes, etc.  Don't get too worried about doing it
for a year, although you should track it for a full year - peoples
appetites change over a year.  You can start preparing with one
quarter's list, you just might be modifying it.  It's more important to
get started than it is to wait hoping to get it all perfect in one
attempt, and find that time has run out.  After a period of time, you'll
have a good idea of what it takes to live and support yourself for that
period.  You can begin stockpiling based on that list, after you take
into account the changes that are almost a sure thing - if you have
small kids, they'll grow up and eat more, for example.

Inventory what's on the shelf.  Don't worry too much about things that
have been there for a long time.  In general, if you don't have to
replace things within a year they aren't a significant part of your
diet, and you don't need to store them (except perhaps as a barter
item).

Practice with new things.

Buy some flour, and practice making breads and things from scratch.  Buy
some whole grains, and a grinder, and make your own flour.  It's
critically important that you know how to use these sorts of foods if
you're going to make them a part of your survival plans, especially for
children.

Getting the stuff -

Develop a rotation program - whatever you get, when you put it in
storage, date it using a waterproof pen or pencil, then use the oldest
first.  This will keep the freshest for emergencies. Food - for fresh
and canned, get one extra every time you buy something. This includes
common toiletries such as soap, toothpaste (and tooth brushes), etc.
Clothing.  First of all, save old things that might be a little too
ragged for regular use.  Buy sturdy clothes. Learn to patch things, and
store the required materials (spare buttons, needles, thread, scissors,
etc.)   You might even want to learn to knit, and store the required
materials. Books:  The most comprehensive listing of books that might be
useful for survival and survivalists is posted once or twice a month on
the internet, in the misc.survivalism newsgroup.  It has hundreds of
both non-fiction educational books, and fictional motivational books.
Barter:  You may think that by having lots of stuff you'll be able to
barter for everything else that you need.


Tools:

Your roadmap will list many items that are best considered tools.
Things that you might not normally need, such as hand tools, first aid
and medical equipment, rope, farming implements (shovels, rakes, etc.),
kerosene or white gas lanterns, chain saws, power tools, repair
materials, etc.  You can start determining what you need, and putting
these items on your list, with expected quantities.  Have a section to
keep track of both the things you need, and the things that you have and
where they are - you'll be surprised at how easy it is to forget that
you've already got something, and how hard it is to find when you need
it. This list is by no means complete or comprehensive, but it does give
an idea of some things that you may want to start stockpiling.

Finances:

Most likely, whatever you think your threat(s) will be, your financial
condition will be a significant factor.  I personally feel that an
economic disaster (including a nationwide depression, and possibly
hyperinflation) is a strong possibility, and if you agree you should do
whatever you can do prepare for it.  With societies current "enjoy now,
pay later" mentality, and the absolute fact that almost nobody in the US
has any significant liquid savings (your home doesn't count, since in an
economic disaster you wouldn't be able to sell it for your mortgage
cost), we are all in trouble.  Combine that with the impending crash of
Social Security (the current 1996 average monthly payment for social
security is around $900) and people not having any long term savings for
retirement, we're in a dangerous position.

In the near term, do everything you can to remove any short-term (credit
card, auto loan, home-equity loan) debt that you have.  This doesn't
mean getting a "bill consolidation" loan, it means cutting up your
credit cards, getting a second job for you and your spouse, and paying
the debt off.  Once you have no regular expenses except for telephone
and utilities and perhaps your mortgage, you're in a better position to
survive than most everyone in the US.

Are there times for short-term credit?  Certainly, but not as a way of
life.  I have to laugh (or cry) when I see people at the grocery store,
paying with their credit cards.  It's OK so long as they pay the bill
off completely each month, but how many people do that?  How many people
do you know that are just increasing their credit card debt, and so long
as they continue to pay the minimum every month, the credit card
companies will keep increasing their limits and giving them new cards.

I personally never buy any product on my credit card if it won't be
around when the bill arrives, if I can. I pay cash for gasoline and
restaurant meals, and use my checking account for almost everything else
except airline tickets, hotels, and renting cars.  It's one way I use to
"sanity check" a purchase.  It also means that I have large unused
balances on my credit cards, available for some emergency that might
require me to break my rules.  Save all the cash you can, do without
things that aren't necessary for your life.  Instead of buying a new
car, maintain the one you have.  Invest your money in your future - by
getting the things you'll need for it, and by reducing your dependence
on forces and factors that you have no control over.

In the longer term, in addition to your home, you might want to start
collecting hard assets, including pre-1964 "junk" silver coins. They're
called junk silver since they have no collectors value, but are (almost)
pure silver.  You might still occasionally see silver coins in
circulation (if you're incredibly lucky), if you do then snap them up.
Otherwise, you might start buying a few, dimes and quarters, as you're
able to. But, don't pay a huge premium over the bullion price.  Get a
book on precious metals investing to find out more.  Once you have some
silver, you might want to hedge your bets buy getting some gold.  Again,
don't pay a huge premium over the bullion price, and be very careful of
what you're doing.   Gold is too concentrated a form of wealth to be
very useful in an economic crisis - silver is probably better.

Major investments:  Your planning may lead you to decide that you need
to make some very serious investments.  You may decide that your
security requires you to move from the city you live in, and find a
retreat.  You may decide that you need to buy a new or different
vehicle, or some items that have little use in your life other than
survivalism. If your personal threat assessment and roadmap leads you to
this conclusion, be careful.  You don't want to get yourself into
financial difficulties while you're trying to prepare yourself for
survival.  Other than that, the resources listed in the misc.survivalism
books.list are much better able to describe t he things to look for, and
watch out for.

Other sources of information:

Books:

In addition to Life After Doomsday, which is a good primer on most
everything, I maintain two lists - one is a summary of well over one
hundred books on all topics relating to survivalism, and another is a
list of several hundred mail order sources of equipment.  These are
posted every two weeks (approximately) to misc.survivalism.

Misc.survivalism is also a good place to ask questions, with a wide
variety of people to provide answers.  This is both good and bad,
sometimes the people are not as competent as others, and may steer you
the wrong way.  But, there will usually be others to correct the
misstatements.

One of the more interesting ways of learning about some of the threat,
and preparation, that's available is the cyber-book The Gray Nineties,
by Jim Rawles.  This book is currently available on the internet from
http://www.teleport.com/~ammon/gn/cover.htm. While I don't necessarily
agree with all of Jim's assumptions and plans, he has written a good
story about the plans and lives of several people after an economic
collapse in the US.